October 1, 2011 September 2011 LGBT Straw Poll
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - The Gay Report announces the results of its LGBT Political Straw Poll for the month of September, 2011.
The straw poll was taken online and was targeted to members of the gay, lesbian, bisexual, questioning, transgender community and their allies in the US, asking them about the current election cycle, political issues and basic demographics. The participants were 223 people, of which 11 responses were incomplete or invalid and therefore not included in the final results, leaving a total of 212 valid responses. The straw poll was taken on 9/25 through 9/30. The next straw poll will take place on 10/27-10/31. Multiple responses from the same respondents were not allowed. Margin of error is estimated 1-2% points.
2012 ELECTION
Participants were asked who they think should be nominated for the GOP presidential nomination. Ron Paul received the most votes, followed by Fred Karger and Jon Huntsman respectively. The big losers were Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum, all of whom received 0 votes.
| Ron Paul | 31% |
| Fred Karger | 30% |
| Jon Huntsman | 24% |
| Gary Johnson | 8% |
| Mitt Romney | 4% |
| Herman Cain | 3% |
| Rick Perry | 0% |
| Newt Gingrich | 0% |
| Michele Bachmann | 0% |
| Rick Santorum | 0% |
Participants were asked if they would consider a serious challenger to the Democratic Party nomination for President. The majority said that they would consider a serious contender.
| YES | 54% |
| NO | 46% |
Participants were asked how would they vote if the election were held today. The majority would vote for President Obama.
| Obama | 61% |
| Other | 27% |
| GOP | 12% |
PRESIDENT OBAMA
Participants were asked about President Obama's overall job performance. So far the majority of respondents had a neutral, bad, very bad response to the President's overall job performance.
| Neutral | 39% |
| Good | 27% |
| Very Good | 15% |
| Bad | 12% |
| Very Bad | 7% |
Next, participants were asked to rate the President's performance on LGBT issues. So far respondents were split on the this question, half giving the President a very good, good response and the other half giving him a neutral, bad, very bad response, although most respondents did give the President favorable votes .
| Good | 31% |
| Bad | 29% |
| Very Good | 19% |
| Neutral | 14% |
| Very Bad | 7% |
Next participants were asked to rate the President's performance on the economy. The majority of respondents gave the President a negative rating
| Bad | 30% |
| Neutral | 24% |
| Very Bad | 21% |
| Good | 13% |
| Very Good | 12% |
THE ISSUES
Participants were asked which general issue is the most important to them in this election cycle. Most respondents said the economy was the most important issue.
| Economy | 41% |
| Social Issues | 18% |
| Monetary Policy | 16% |
| Healthcare | 10% |
| Immigration | 5% |
| Taxes | 4% |
| Environment | 3% |
| Spending/Budget | 2% |
| Foreign Policy | 1% |
| Education | 0% |
Next, participants were asked which LGBT issue was the most important to them in this election cycle. Majority of respondents said that marriage rights and the repeal of DOMA was the most important issue.
| Marriage Rights/DOMA | 57% |
| Gays in the military | 17% |
| ENDA/Discrimination | 12% |
| AIDS/HIV | 6% |
| Student Bullying | 5% |
| Adoption rights | 3% |
| Blood ban | 0% |
Lastly, respondents were asked about abortion and whether it should be illegal or legal. The majority of the respondents said it should be legal.
| Legal | 79% |
| Illegal | 21% |
POLITICAL CLIMATE
Respondents were asked to rate Congress' job performance. The majority gave Congress a very negative rating.
| Bad | 32% |
| Very Bad | 25% |
| Neutral | 23% |
| Good | 16% |
| Very Good | 4% |
Next, respondents were asked what direction they thought the country was heading. The majority said that country is heading in a bad direction.
| Bad | 58% |
| Very Bad | 21% |
| Neutral | 12% |
| Good | 6% |
| Very Good | 3% |
Next, respondents were asked how they felt about the Tea Party. The majority of the respondents gave the Tea Party a very negative rating.
| Very Bad | 51% |
| Bad | 33% |
| Neutral | 11% |
| Good | 3% |
| Very Good | 2% |
Next, respondents were asked how they felt about the Democratic Party. The majority of the respondents gave the Democratic Party a very good rating.
| Very Good | 58% |
| Good | 23% |
| Neutral | 9% |
| Bad | 7% |
| Very Bad | 3% |
Next, respondents were asked which politicians they though were their most favorite and least favorite. Hillary Clinton got most votes for most favorite while Rick Santorum got most votes for least favorite. Politicians who did get any votes in either question are not included in the final results.
| Hillary Clinton | 34% | Rick Santorum | 32% |
| Tammy Baldwin | 31% | Sarah Palin | 27% |
| Ron Paul | 14% | Michele Bachmann | 21% |
| Barrack Obama | 8% | Sally Kern | 8% |
| Barney Frank | 5% | Rick Perry | 7% |
| Scott Brown | 3% | Mitt Romney | 3% |
| Jared Polis | 2% | Newt Gingrich | 2% |
| Andrew Cuomo | 2% | -- | -- |
| Gary Johnson | 1% | -- | -- |
DEMOGRAPHICS
The following results reflect general demographics of the LGBT community and their allies.
Party affiliation
| Democrat | 52% |
| Libertarian | 19% |
| Republican | 17% |
| Independent/ No Party | 8% |
| Green | 4% |
Ideology
| Somewhat liberal | 29% |
| Very liberal | 27% |
| Moderate | 23% |
| Somewhat conservative | 15% |
| Very conservative | 6% |
Age
| 18-25 | 29% |
| 45-55 | 26% |
| 25-35 | 21% |
| 55+ | 18% |
| Under 18 | 6% |
Race
| White | 72% |
| Latino | 13% |
| Black | 7% |
| Asian | 5% |
| Native American | 2% |
| Middle Eastern | 1% |
Sexual Orientation
| Gay/Lesbian | 89% |
| Bisexual | 6% |
| Straight | 3% |
| Questioning | 2% |
Gender
| Male | 52% |
| Female | 41% |
| Trans (M to F) | 4% |
| Trans (F to M) | 3% |
Religion
| Christian | 61% |
| Jewish | 27% |
| Agnostic | 5% |
| Atheist | 5% |
| New Age | 2% |
FINDINGS
- It has become apparent that support for president Obama is shrinking in the LGBT community but not as fast as other communities like Latino, Black, and Jewish voters. We conclude that the votes for the President are still there for now but the enthusiasm has all but evaporated. However, if these numbers do not improve the President is in danger of losing the LGBT support, especially if either the GOP nominates a gay friendly candidate or somebody like Hillary Clinton gains more support to run for the democratic nomination. On the other hand, we would not be surprised if his support grows momentarily during the primaries as GOP candidates like Rick Santorum continue to push LGBTs away from supporting the GOP.
- LGBTs, like most American, are concerned about the economy and the direction of the country. We see nothing unusual with the numbers being that all other polls reflect this.
- Two surprises: 1) The number of LGBTs that affiliate themselves with the Libertarian Party is pretty strong versus other polls that have in the past suggested otherwise, we think that LGBTs are now more open than before in joining a third party. 2) The demographics indicate that LGBTs have a Christian identity increase, more so than expected.
- We see a trend of younger LGBTs getting more involved in politics but are becoming less ideological and more driven to address LGBT issues that affect the community at large than before as LGBT moderates and independents are on the rise.
- Clearly, there is more political diversity than before in the LGBT community.
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